Pinoy political supporters quarrel as Trump stumbles

“It is better to debate a question without settling it than to settle a question without debating it.”

—Joseph Joubert

 

By Alex P. Vidal

 

ANGERED by poll results showing President Donald Trump stumble several weeks before the November 3 U.S. Presidential Election, some of Mr. Trump’s die-hard Filipino supporters in New York City have clashed verbally with some Filipino supporters of former Vice President Joseph Biden.

“Hindi kami naniniwala sa survey. It’s fake news. The trend is now in favor of President Trump nationally,” insisted Norberto Recaforte, 63, holder of official “Trump 2020 gold card” and the most vocal Trump ally in Jackson Heights, Queens together with Elmhurst’s Luis Lomuntad, 65.

Pedrito Nacionales, 78, of Jersey City, New Jersey who visited New York to join his fellow seniors in Jackson Height’s Filipino community in the interaction, sustained Recaforte. 

“In 2016, President Trump was also down by more than 12 percent in the homestretch and even lost to Hillary (Clinton) by more than three million popular votes. In the Electoral College, Trump buried Hillary alive,” explained Nacionales, member of the National Rifles Association of America (NRA), a gun rights advocacy group founded to advance rifle marksmanship.

The modern NRA continues to teach firearm safety and competency.

 

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Recaforte was contradicted by Arthur Bangeles, 67, who showed the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll released on October 11, the latest poll to indicate Mr. Biden's strength. 

“You are going against the facts,” Bangeles remarked. “The facts will tell everything, not emotions.” 

Bangeles said Mr. Biden led Trump by a 55 percent to 43 percent margin among likely voters based on the recent poll, which was the third high quality national poll published this week that had Mr. Biden up by at least 10 points and above 50 percent.

The other two being from CNN/SSRS and Fox News, a “pro-Trump” network.

The average of polls has Mr. Biden at around 52 percent or 53 percent and up by somewhere between 10 and 11 points. 

This is an unprecedented position for a challenger with a mere 23 days to go until Election Day, explained the CNN.

Lomuntad rejected the data and accused CNN as “Clinton News Network.”

“Almost 24/7 wala nang ginawa ang CNN kundi siraan si President Trump. It’s fake news,” he boomed.

 

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CNN’s Harry Enten observed that in the 21 previous presidential elections since 1936, “there have only been five challengers who led at this time. Of those five, only one (Bill Clinton in 1992) was ahead by more than 5 points. None of those five were earning more than 48 percent of the vote in the polls.”

“In other words,” Enten stressed, “Mr. Biden is the first challenger to be above 50 percent at this late juncture in the campaign.”

This also continues to mark a massive difference with the 2016 campaign. 

Enten pointed out that while Hillary Clinton was ahead of Mr. Trump by as high as seven points in October 2016, “she never came anywhere close to approaching 50% of the vote. Trump merely had to win the lionshare of the undecided or third party voters (who would bolt their candidate) to earn a victory in 2016.”

 

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Even if every undecided or current third party voter went to Mr. Trump now, he'd still be down about 5 to 6 points nationally, according to Enten.

“That's never been the case with an incumbent since 1936 at this point,” he said.

Enten explained that “it's the Electoral College that matters. There are very few universes in which Trump could win the Electoral College, if he were to lose nationally by 5 to 6 points.”

New polls out on October 11 from CBS News/YouGov demonstrate that Mr. Biden's above 50 percent in some key battlegrounds. 

He leads 52 percent to 46 percent in Michigan and Nevada. 

In Iowa, a state that Mr. Trump took by nine points in 2016 and is not anywhere close to must win for Mr. Biden, the race is tied at 49 percent.

A look under the hood reveals why Mr. Biden is in such a strong position. 

Since the coronavirus pandemic began, COVID-19 has either been, or been within the margin of error of being the nation's most important problem in Gallup polling, explained Enten.

(The author, who is now based in New York City, used to be the editor of two dailies in Iloilo)