Like Hillary, Kovalev wins but loses in the judges' 'electoral college'

"As much as I love boxing, I hate it. And as much as I hate it, I love it." -- Budd Schulberg

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- Bad news for Vladimir Putin. Good news for his "favorite", President-elect Donald J. Trump.
We have boxing's version of the puzzling "electoral college", the decrepit system that denied Hillary Clinton the presidency despite besting Trump in the popular votes in the recent election.
We respect the judges' verdict, an identical 114-113 unanimous decision in favor of American Andre Ward (31-0, 15 KOs), but the night belonged to dethroned Russian world champion Sergey Kovalev (30-1-1, 26 KOs) in the battle for WBA, WBO, and IBF light heavyweight belts on Saturday night (November 19) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
With 84 percent KO in his ledger, the 33-year-old warrior, born in Kopeysk, Russia, should have prevented a "hometown" decision by finishing off the 32-year-old challenger from Oakland in the early rounds.

RESCUE

But orthodox Kovalev allowed Ward to be rescued by the judges when he failed to put him away for good after scoring a second round knockdown which was worth 55 electoral college votes in the presidential race.
But unlike Clinton who gamely accepted her upset defeat, the Russian KO artist could only complain: “It’s the wrong decision. I don’t want to say my opinion. The witnesses are here – they saw it. It’s my job. It was a fight of my life. I am disappointed in the judges’ decision. He got maybe a few rounds, I agree with that. I kept control. I lost maybe three rounds the whole fight."
He added: "Of course, I want a rematch and I will kick his ass. I want to show good boxing. I am against here it is the USA and all the judges were from the USA. He is a boxer. It’s a sport, don’t make it politics. It’s a sport and I won the fight!”

'NOT SURPRISED'

Ward, who earned my admiration when he blasted to smithereens the incredible Chad Dawson for the WBC and WBC super-middleweight crowns in 2012, believed he won the bout: “No, I was not surprised when I heard the decision, I don’t’ know where you got that from. I know it was a close fight – the crowd you can hear they thought I won…I have been a champ before I knew it was going to be a tough fight – it was the first time in my career I was dropped."
Ward added: "He did everything I expected him to do. He started to show up as I expected he started to fight like I expected. My coach did a great job…It’s hard for me to call myself great. At the end of the day I am a two-weight division champion. Of course, I would do a rematch. I am not going to negotiate a fight right now I will go home and relax and see what’s next.”

What to expect on election day in New York--A Primer on Exit Polling and Calling the Race

NEW YORK CITY -- Transcript by the New York Foreign Press Center (NYFPC) on Q & A with Dr. Christina Greer of Fordham University, during the NYFPC briefing on "What to expect on election day in New York -- A Primer on Exit Polling and Calling the Race" at The Westin New York Grand Central, November 7.

PRESS:  Good morning.  I am Alex Vidal and I am from the Philippines.
We hold our presidential election every six years and like in the United States, there are more than 100 candidates who file a certificate of candidacy. 

And before the election proper commences, the names of these so-called nuisance candidates are removed from the ballots.  
So we’ve learned that in the United States, in this year’s election there are at least, 1,780 people who signified their statement of candidacy.  So how do you handle this situation?  Are their names still there in the ballot?
DR. GREER:  Depending on I think the state in which they possibly declared, but no.  We know that most people have never heard of any of these people.  Right?  
And you have to get a certain threshold to actually show up on a ballot.  So you may have declared your candidacy, but you are not on a ballot as a proper party.  A recognized party.
There are lots of ways that you can write in particular individuals, but unfortunately, I think that goes back to an earlier question where it’s like the country and the institutions, mechanisms that create sort of how we run our elections are really based on a two-party system.  Right?
The interesting thing, though, is there has been a conversation and I don’t know how this would happen because again it would be a constitutional amendment, but some people argue that because of the influx of money in campaigns these days.  
We know that essentially we’ve been dealing with this campaign for about a year and a half.  Because of so much money and like the billions of dollars that it now costs to run for the presidency, we know that the sitting President has to start running essentially immediately after the mid-term elections. Right?  
So when Barack Obama got through the 2014 mid-term elections, or the 2010 elections, he essentially geared up for his reelection campaign for 2012.
Some people argue, well if we gave the presidency just six years, so it’s a one term of six years, we wouldn’t have to worry about someone spending essentially two years running for reelection.  
They could just get in and get the job done and then they leave.  Right? 
However, our Senators are there for six years and so it’s an interesting proposition, but I don’t know if that would happen.

The State of the Race: The Liberal Perspective

NEW YORK CITY -- Transcript by the New York Foreign Press Center (NYFPC) interaction between yours truly and Jefrey Pollock, founding partner and president of Global Strategy Group, during the NYFPC  briefing on "The State of the Race--The Liberal Perspective" at The Westin New York Grand Central, November 7.

ALEX P. VIDAL of the Philippines: Mr. Trump has bashed the media not only once, not only twice --
MR POLLOCK:  Say that again.  He has passed?
VIDAL:  Mr. Trump has bashed the media not only once, not only twice, but several times in his speeches.
MR POLLOCK:  Oh, yes.
VIDAL:  Yes.  And since these polls have been reported in mass media, and technically they have become part and parcel of media -- 
MR POLLOCK:  Yes.
VIDAL:  -- so how do we convince the doubting Thomases, especially the pro-Trump supporters, that these polls that tilt in favor of Hillary Clinton, are credible?

MR. POLLOCK

MR POLLOCK:  Well, if Hillary wins tomorrow and then maybe they’re convinced until Donald Trump says it’s all rigged and contests the election.  I don’t have a great answer for you.  There’s no question that Donald Trump has taken media bashing to a new level, a disheartening level, in this cycle.  There are pictures of folks at their – folks at a Trump rally from today or yesterday wearing terrible t-shirts that sort of talk about taking it to the media, and I mean literally taking them out and hanging them on a tree kind of a thing.  
And so that’s part of the thing that is so depressing about this election cycle is the base level of conversation that we have had to have.  But I don’t think that – it’s not – it’s not anyone’s job to convince the voters that the polls are wrong or right.  
We’re going to see on Election Day and there’s going to be a lot of conversations about what those polls said and whether they were right or wrong. 

CNN: The final get-out-the-vote flurry begins

Washington (CNN) -- On the ground, on the air, and on the stump -- it is now all about getting out the vote.
For both parties, the last 96 hours before Election Day is the time to put months, even years-long plans to turn out voters in motion.
In 2016, Republicans are trying to learn from their mistakes. After their lagging 2012 operation failed to elect Mitt Romney, the Republican National Committee began working to step up their game, investing manpower and resources in many key states some three years ago.
"We are 100 miles away from where we were in 2012," said Matt Dailer, the RNC's director in the battleground state of Iowa.
One of the biggest differences between this election cycle and those in the past is that Republican activists and volunteers are working on a new phone app to get out the vote.
"It will show you their party affiliation, how reliable they are as a voter. You just click that voter, do tech survey, boom there you go right there," said Dailer, as he demonstrated the way it works.
It also gives volunteers what's called "dynamic scripting," a tool that prompts different pitches to voters depending on their answers to a set of questions, information instantly sent back to RNC headquarters.
"If we have someone who says the country is going in the wrong direction but they plan on voting for Hillary Clinton, there we go," Dailer said. "Now we know how we can target them."
"We need to talk to low-propensity Republicans to make sure they know when the election is and figure out who they're going to support so we can drive them out," he added.
Now, in the final push, thousands of GOP staffers and volunteers are using that app in battleground states across the country. The RNC, which is leading Trump's ground operation, says it will complete 17 million door knocks by Election Day, up from the 11.5 million it did in 2012.
It's an ambitious plan, but it's been done before -- by the Democrats.
Republican strategists openly admit that they are trying to emulate the Obama ground machine that crushed the GOP for two presidential election cycles.
And this cycle, the Democrats are not slowing down. Armies of Democratic volunteers and activists are spread out over the same key states as Republicans.
Clinton campaign aides say they are expecting to have close to 1 million volunteer shifts in the final 96 hours alone.
In some ways, team Clinton is old school. Unlike the Republicans who do almost everything on an app, the Democrats still distribute call sheets and send volunteers out canvassing with paper and clipboards. All the information is then imputed and tallied at the end of each day.
Still, overall, the Clinton system is very high tech, using social and digital media to build on that vaunted Obama operation. Jessalyn Reid, the Clinton campaign's Virginia state digital director, explained that their technology is all about meeting voters where they are, which in 2016 is online.
"We've got apps and mobile websites and email and all of the stuff that we're going to bring together for a holistic direct voter contact program that really reaches people where they are and enables them to organize their communities and get out the vote both on and off line," she said.
For Team Clinton, getting out the vote is all about decentralizing the process and helping volunteers reach out to people in their own communities.
Democrats also stress the importance of getting their supporters to make a concrete voting plan. Reid demonstrated on her phone how voters can use text messages to nail down every detail, from their polling location to what kind of transportation they will take to what time of day they plan to go. And on Election Day, Reid said those voters will get a reminder straight to their phones telling them to go vote.
With just days until the election, Clinton officials say their volunteers are pretty much done trying to persuade voters to support the Democratic nominee; they are just focused on turnout.
"Right now, and through the final stretch of the campaign, we are talking to Hillary supporters -- so people that we know support Hillary," said Reid.
Republican officials say they are also focusing their phone efforts on turning out supporters, but say their technology makes it possible to continue trying to persuade soft voters door to door, even in the final days of the campaign.
Still, for both sides, on Election Day, all the phone calls, messaging, door knocking, has to translate to one thing: votes.

Invitation to attend Trump's 'victory party' at New York Hilton Midtown

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- I just received an invitation to attend the "Donald J. Trump Victory Party on Election Night in New York City" at 6:30 p.m. at the New York Hilton Midtown on November 8, 2016. 

In an email from the Foreign Press Center, I was told to secure a media credential for the event. 

Meaning that Trump is 100 percent sure of beating Hillary Clinton? Very interesting.

Latest poll results showed Trump and Clinton are neck and neck in the race to gain 270 electoral college votes.

Earlier, I got another invitation to attend the Washington Press Center Election Day Tour-Visit to Virginia Polling Place in Alexandria, Virginia also on November 8, 2016 from 9:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m.

According to the information provided in the invitation, "Virginia was a critical swing state during the 2008 and 2012 presidential election cycles and has remained a player in 2016 in both the Presidential election as well as down-ticket races."

 ISSUES

Several issues contribute to this status, added the information.

Among them are Virginia's complex geographic, economic and social diversity, "not to mention that Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Tim Kaine hails from the Old Dominion."

The information said, "these factors will likely influence the outcome of Virginia's election results as voters head to the polls on November 8."

Participants in the tour will receive an overview of the mechanics of voting in Virginia, "they and they will have an opportunity to interview voters on sited," stated the information.

Among the topics during the briefing are: "The Disruption of American Politics", "Next Congress", "Latest Exit Polls", and "Foreign Policy and the Next Administration."

New polls show tight Clinton-Trump race nationally, battlegrounds

CNN reported October 31 that Hillary Clinton holds a slim lead over Donald Trump, a new national poll shows.
An ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll released Sunday showed Clinton ahead 46% to 45% -- narrower than Saturday's 2-point Clinton edge.
In CNN's Poll of Polls, which averages results for the five most recently released national surveys, Clinton has a 47% to 42% advantage over Trump. That's unchanged from the most recent Poll of Polls on Saturday.

REVEL

At-risk Republicans revel in FBI's Clinton email announcement
The ABC/Washington Post poll found that more than 6 in 10 voters say the news that the FBI is investigating newly discovered emails that could be related to Hillary Clinton's private server will make no difference in their vote, while 3 in 10 say it makes them less likely to back Clinton.
Sunday morning also brought a new set of battleground state polls.
In North Carolina -- a must-win state for Trump -- an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist University poll found Clinton ahead, 47% to Trump's 41%. The same poll found Clinton ahead 48% to 43% in early October.
In Florida, an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist University survey shows a dead heat -- with Clinton at 45% and Trump at 44%, a one-point drop for Clinton since the same poll's last results in early October, when Clinton led 46% to 44%.
Meanwhile, a New York Times Upshot/Siena poll found Trump ahead -- 46% to 42% -- in Florida. The same poll had found the candidates even at 43% apiece in September.
Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly reflected The New York Times/Siena poll results in Florida.

How AP rates the presidential race and the Road to 270

Hillary Clinton appears to have expanded her likely electoral college advantage amid strong early vote numbers in key states and national polling that, while tightening, consistently shows her leading Republican rival Donald Trump.

The Associated Press this week moves Nevada, where most recent polls show Clinton leading and early vote numbers appear to be in her favor, to leaning Democratic.

AP also moves Iowa from leaning Republican to tossup after a recent Quinnipiac University poll there showed a tied race.

The analysis is of the map as it stands today. It considers preference polling, recent electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel and on-the-ground staff.

If Clinton is able to hold on to her current battleground leads, she would win the White House even if Trump sweeps the remaining tossup states.
___

SOLID DEMOCRATIC: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington state (213 total electoral votes).

LEANS DEMOCRATIC: Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (65 total electoral votes).

TOSS-UP: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Maine 2nd District, Nebraska 2nd District, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah (87 total electoral votes).

LEANS REPUBLICAN: Alaska, Georgia, Missouri, Texas (67 total electoral votes).

SOLID REPUBLICAN: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming (106 total electoral votes).
___

Follow AP Polling Editor Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/EL_Swan

___

Want to chart your own path along the Road to 270? Figure out how Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton can get the Electoral College votes they'll need to win the White House with AP's interactive map: http://elections.ap.org/content/road-270-0. By EMILY SWANSON

Opinions: Clinton rips Trump in first debate

"I love argument, I love debate. I don't expect anyone just to sit there and agree with me, that's not their job." -- Margaret Thatcher

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- Fil-Am voter Delia Gatmaitan of Queens did not cook dinner and "we decided to eat what was left in the refrigerator so we won't miss the debate" last night (September 26) between presidential nominees Hillary Clinton of Democratic Party  and Donald Trump of Republican Party.
Gatmaitan, 66, and live-in partner, Raul, 28, a Hispanic immigrant, both Clinton supporters, have been waiting the first presidential debate since August. 
Their housemate, another Fil-Am voter, Darcito Bartolome, 70, a Trump supporter, was also glued to his TV set monitoring the event at the Hofstra University in Hempstead on NBC channel, one of the networks that broadcast the "live" debate.
Like many partisan observers, they were divided on who won the first of the series of debates.

CIVILITY

According to Ruth Ben-Ghiat, professor of history and Italian studies at New York University, "Civility went south fast in Monday's debate."
She said, "Donald Trump lost his composure early, ranting, interrupting (over 20 times) and sniffing. (Under the weather, or out of his comfort zone?) Hillary Clinton started out soft, playing the grandmother card, but quickly escalated to tough talk and occasional sarcasm. It could hardly have gone otherwise. Clinton hit hard at Trump, bringing up his admiration of Russian President Vladimir Putin, his 'long record of engaging in racist behavior,' his denial at having supported the Iraq war, and his refusal to allow the American people to see his tax returns."
A specialist in 20th-century European history, Ben-Ghiat added: "In doing so, Clinton did Americans a big favor: she revealed Trump's limitations. He is simply unable to make those leaps of imagination and generosity necessary to transform from a businessperson to a national political leader." 

SMALLNESS

She stressed further: "The candidate who claims to do everything big showed the smallness of his thinking tonight. With his off-key rejoinders, he demonstrated repeatedly how he sees everything -- people, properties, cities, and entire countries -- in terms of how they factor into his business and personal universe, which seem to be one and the same. I'll get to Pennsylvania Avenue one way or another, he said tonight, as though the White House and his new Trump hotel are entities of equal importance. Perhaps they really are, in his mind."
"Clinton alone demonstrated the composure, wisdom, and broad vision necessary for executive office. She won the debate hands down," she explained.
Activist and television commentator Sally Kohn said "Trump's train went off the rails."

TRAIN

Donald Trump's supporters like to refer to his movement as "The Trump Train." Well, tonight The Trump Train went off the rails. Big time, Kohn pointed out.
"Admittedly, to many observers, the train was already way off track. Maybe it started the moment his campaign began, when he dismissed Mexican immigrants as 'rapists.' Or maybe it was when he attacked Sen. John McCain. Or later, when he attacked a Gold Star family. Certainly, many Americans have paid attention to the media's attempts at fact checking -- including one report that Trump only tells the truth 22% of the time, and another that found in five hours of talking, Trump outright lied an average of every 3 minutes and 15 seconds," she observed.
Kohn added: "But for those who somehow thought, up until Monday night, that Donald Trump might somehow be qualified to be president, Monday's debate was a wake-up call. He seemed like a defensive, petulant bully who could only insult Hillary Clinton and America -- and couldn't offer a single solution, let alone details. He came across as not only dreadfully unprepared for the debate, but dreadfully unprepared to be president. Which is the truth. And it's high time all Americans know it.

BIASED

"But don't believe me. I'm obviously biased. Believe Frank Luntz. In his live focus group of undecided and leaning voters, just six people thought Trump won while 16 said Clinton was the victor. In moment after moment, the focus group preferred Clinton. For instance, Clinton's response to Trump's attack on her stamina scored better than Trump's attack. And Hillary's plan to defeat ISIS actually scored better with the Trump leaners in the group than with the Clinton leaners.
"In moment after moment, Hillary Clinton presented a knowledgeable and clear-eyed vision for how to help working families and continue America on the path to security and prosperity. Donald Trump, in contrast, lied, and got defensive. He was petty and insulting, and then lied some more. Lies apparently can only get the Trump train so far. Eventually it runs out of steam.
"Hillary Clinton showed herself to be the kind of person you want in the White House. And Donald Trump showed himself to be the kind of kindergartner who should have his train taken away and instead given a timeout."

Possible bedfellows: Roxas-Clinton, Duterte-Trump, Poe or Binay-Clinton

"Perfect partners don't exist. Perfect conditions exist for a limited time in which partnerships express themselves best."  
Wayne Rooney

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- There should be no more false hopes for supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders as the number of Democratic open primaries is getting smaller, with Sec. Hillary Clinton must now win only 33 percent of remaining delegates to hit the 2,383 magic number as of April 6.
In order to oust Clinton, Sanders must win 67 percent of the remaining delegates. 
Clinton now has 1,728 against Sanders' 1,058 (this is the latest count even after Sanders clobbered Clinton in Wisconsin, 57 percent-43 percent).
With the next primary heading to New York (April 19), Clinton's home state, the prospect has become dimmer for Sanders.
Assuming that Clinton clinches the Democratic presidential slot, pollsters have predicted she could put away either Donald Trump (753 delegates) or Ted Cruz (514) of Republican party in the November general election.

SUPPORT

With full support from President Noynoy Aquino, Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party could pull the rug from under PDP Laban's Rodrigo Duterte, Nationalist People's Coalition's Grace Poe, and United Nationalist Alliance's Jejomar Binay.
Because of health problems, Miriam Defensor-Santiago has fallen by the wayside and isn't anymore expected to put up a good fight with barely five weeks to go.
Assuming that Roxas will win on May 9, 2016 and Clinton becomes president after the November 8, 2016 general election, they can work together harmoniously as both the Liberal and Democratic parties almost share the same political ideology and philosophy.
Although LP distances itself from the political extremes on the left and right, it can tune in with the Democrat's modern liberalism.

LANDSCAPE

If Duterte will make it and Trump will upset Clinton, the political landscape will change drastically as both gentlemen are known tough guys determined to wield iron hands to govern their nations.
Duterte has vowed to wipe out criminal elements and feed them to the fishes in the Manila Bay, while Trump has promised to build a wall to prevent Hispanic illegals from crossing the US-Mexico border; round up and yank out overstaying aliens.
Duterte's PDP Laban democratic centrist socialism
and consultative and participative democracy principles will have to sit well with Trump's Republican American conservatism.

SMOOTH

Poe's NPC can work smoothly with the Republican as it is also a conservative party.
Since it is in the right wing, Binay's UNA can engage in a romance with both the Democrat and Republican parties as it also embraces the ideology of conservatism, Filipino nationalism, social conservatism, and populism.
This means that a Binay victory in the Philippines and a Clinton or Trump victory in the United States can't be a case of a round hole in a square peg.

Miriam and Hillary: perfect match

"Some leaders are born women." Geraldine Ferraro

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- If Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago becomes Philippine president and Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton becomes US president this year, it will mark the first time that two lady presidents will lord over since the two countries signed the Treaty of General Relation on July 4, 1946.
The treaty relinquished American sovereignty over the archipelago following the end of World War II and the Philippines was recognized as an independent state.
It paved the way for the Philippine-American Friendship Day, which the Filipinos celebrate every 4th of July.
Like the late president Ferdinand Marcos, Santiago does not read her speech. 
The Filipinos were so proud when Marcos spoke extemporaneously or without any prepared speech during a 1982 state visit in Washington D.C. after then President Ronald Reagan finished reading his prepared speech in a White House ceremony.

PERFECT

Older by two years, the 70-year-old Santiago would be Clinton's perfect counterpart in the Asia-Pacific as they are both members of the legal profession, and have deeper understanding of diplomatic relations and international law.  
It would be a dream match to watch the two articulate and brilliant female leaders discuss issues in the age of technology and social media.
The summit meetings and state visits would no longer be boring.
There is also interesting comparison between their respective husbands.
While former president Bill was rumored to be a womanizer (who can forget the Monica Lewinsky scandal?), former DILG Undersecretary Narciso was rumored to be a gambler (cockfighting).

DELEGATES

But while Clinton is almost a cinch away from clinching the presidency in November (she is very much ahead in the number of delegates against Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries, and is favored based on various surveys to whip would-be Republican bet Donald Trump in the national contest), Santiago has not been doing well in surveys.
Her campaign has suffered a major snag due to health problems.
On the other hand, if Grace Poe wins in the May polls and Clinton clinches the US presidency, she may not be able to match Clinton's intellectual savvy and prowess; but, nevertheless, Poe will also make history like Santiago.