Don't panic: 'Overstaying' different from 'undocumented'

"Immigration laws are the only laws that are discussed in terms of how to help people who break them." --Thomas Sowell

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- This could be a heightened emotional rather than political issue.
President-elect Donald J. Trump may have taken a tough stand on immigration issues during the campaign period, but it remains to be seen how will his incoming Republican administration implement the feared mass deportation of "illegal aliens" estimated to be around 11.5 million in the entire United States.
While his upset win against Hillary Clinton hogged headlines days after the November 8 elections, the gnawing fear among undocumented immigrants dominated the discussions in communities that may be potentially affected by Mr. Trump's ascension to White House on January 20, 2017.
Now that real panic has beckoned, it is best if we begin with the definition of terms to describe and identify the involved parties, so as not to cause confusion, misinformation, and miscommunication.
Although the term "undocumented" should be the generic to describe those staying in the United States illegally, let us be clear about Mr. Trump's real targets--and how far can he possibly cause torments to the culturally diverse population.

ANNOUNCE

When he began lashing at "rapists and criminals" last year to unravel his intention to run for president, Mr. Trump stepped up his acrimony with a stunning proposal to build a wall in the border.
He was referring to the Mexicans or the Latinos from Spanish-speaking countries and territories who used the U.S.-Mexico border to sneak illegally into the mainland USA.
This group of "illegal immigrants" are considered "undocumented" because they entered without legal papers or government-issued identification cards, among other valid documents after outsmarting border patrols.
To add insult, some of them commit criminal acts and violate the laws, thus their chances of being deported swiftly become certain.
Some Chinese and Cuban nationals, who arrived under mysterious circumstances, may also be classified as "undocumented" because, like some tricky Latinos, they have no passports, birth certificates, among other legal papers, when they set foot in the US via sea.
Most of them did not go through proper immigration procedures upon entry.

ASIANS

Another group of Asians that include Indians, Filipinos, Indonesians, Malaysians, and Vietnamese who arrived on tourist or temporary visas may be classified as "overstaying" if their visas have expired and have extended their stay without authorization from the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS),  a component of the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
They may be technically called as "illegals" for having violated the terms and conditions of their visas or their failure to go back to their country of origin as specified, but they can always obtain valid documents like passports from their respective consulates. 
They can't be tagged as "undocumented".
If they did not commit a crime and their behavior is not inimical to the interest of the state, and regularly pay taxes, TNTs (Tago Ng Tago) may not be easily "harassed" into falling in line to the deportation proceedings especially if they have competent lawyers and valid or justifiable reasons for extension of stay.
There is no doubt Trump's deportation guillotine is now being sharpened, but it will take a horrific number of manpower and federal cash out to round up all the 11.5 million warm bodies without being hounded by international watchdogs and accusations of inhuman treatment when emotions start to rack up and families start to break up.

'Duterte hard to predict than Trump'

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- Describing Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte as "an emotional person", the director of New York University Center for U.S.-China Relations considers the Filipino leader as "more difficult to predict" than US President-elect Donald J. Trump on the issue in the South China Sea.
"If it’s difficult to try to predict Mr. Trump, it’s even more difficult to predict Mr. Duterte.  So I really don’t want to be in the position of trying to predict how he would behave," David B. H. Denoon, also professor of politics and economics, told foreign journalists in a briefing for the 2016 presidential race hosted by the New York Foreign Press Center (NYFPC) at The Westin New York Grand Central, November 8.
Denoon said there are some people who think that Mr. Duterte "is clever and that he is essentially just trying to negotiate and play China against the United States, and that he thinks he can keep the United States as the Philippines’ most important ally while insulting the American President and saying a number of very rash things."  

MINISTRY

According to Denoon, "the foreign ministry in the Philippines has tried to back down from some of the things Mr. Duterte said in Beijing, when he said he wanted to break off the relationship with the U.S."
He added: "I don’t think we know what he’s going to do.  I think he’s very, very hard to predict.  I would say the Philippines would be an absolutely critical country for anyone who believed in the original concept that Secretary Clinton put forth in terms of rebalancing towards Asia.  Because if the Philippines turns out to be pro-China or hostile to the U.S., given its location close to Taiwan and given its location close to Malaysia and Indonesia, that would change the strategic balance." 
"The same thing is true of Malaysia, however.  Malaysia is much smaller, but if you look at its location, the eastern provinces of Malaysia are next to Indonesia and next to the Philippines.  If Malaysia becomes pro-China, then it’s going to have a dramatic effect within the region.  

DIRECTION

"The only country that has moved in the other direction and become more critical of China in the last few years is Indonesia, where the president has become extremely antagonistic to the Chinese role in Indonesian waters.  In fact, Indonesians are the only people in Asia who have sunk Chinese fishing boats and have captured Chinese civilians.
"So I would say the problem with trying to predict Duterte is that we don’t know whether he’s just bargaining or whether this is his true set of views.  But certainly the mainstream public in the Philippines is very positive towards the United States, and they’re all scratching their heads over what he’s trying to do."

What to expect on election day in New York--A Primer on Exit Polling and Calling the Race

NEW YORK CITY -- Transcript by the New York Foreign Press Center (NYFPC) on Q & A with Dr. Christina Greer of Fordham University, during the NYFPC briefing on "What to expect on election day in New York -- A Primer on Exit Polling and Calling the Race" at The Westin New York Grand Central, November 7.

PRESS:  Good morning.  I am Alex Vidal and I am from the Philippines.
We hold our presidential election every six years and like in the United States, there are more than 100 candidates who file a certificate of candidacy. 

And before the election proper commences, the names of these so-called nuisance candidates are removed from the ballots.  
So we’ve learned that in the United States, in this year’s election there are at least, 1,780 people who signified their statement of candidacy.  So how do you handle this situation?  Are their names still there in the ballot?
DR. GREER:  Depending on I think the state in which they possibly declared, but no.  We know that most people have never heard of any of these people.  Right?  
And you have to get a certain threshold to actually show up on a ballot.  So you may have declared your candidacy, but you are not on a ballot as a proper party.  A recognized party.
There are lots of ways that you can write in particular individuals, but unfortunately, I think that goes back to an earlier question where it’s like the country and the institutions, mechanisms that create sort of how we run our elections are really based on a two-party system.  Right?
The interesting thing, though, is there has been a conversation and I don’t know how this would happen because again it would be a constitutional amendment, but some people argue that because of the influx of money in campaigns these days.  
We know that essentially we’ve been dealing with this campaign for about a year and a half.  Because of so much money and like the billions of dollars that it now costs to run for the presidency, we know that the sitting President has to start running essentially immediately after the mid-term elections. Right?  
So when Barack Obama got through the 2014 mid-term elections, or the 2010 elections, he essentially geared up for his reelection campaign for 2012.
Some people argue, well if we gave the presidency just six years, so it’s a one term of six years, we wouldn’t have to worry about someone spending essentially two years running for reelection.  
They could just get in and get the job done and then they leave.  Right? 
However, our Senators are there for six years and so it’s an interesting proposition, but I don’t know if that would happen.

The State of the Race: The Liberal Perspective

NEW YORK CITY -- Transcript by the New York Foreign Press Center (NYFPC) interaction between yours truly and Jefrey Pollock, founding partner and president of Global Strategy Group, during the NYFPC  briefing on "The State of the Race--The Liberal Perspective" at The Westin New York Grand Central, November 7.

ALEX P. VIDAL of the Philippines: Mr. Trump has bashed the media not only once, not only twice --
MR POLLOCK:  Say that again.  He has passed?
VIDAL:  Mr. Trump has bashed the media not only once, not only twice, but several times in his speeches.
MR POLLOCK:  Oh, yes.
VIDAL:  Yes.  And since these polls have been reported in mass media, and technically they have become part and parcel of media -- 
MR POLLOCK:  Yes.
VIDAL:  -- so how do we convince the doubting Thomases, especially the pro-Trump supporters, that these polls that tilt in favor of Hillary Clinton, are credible?

MR. POLLOCK

MR POLLOCK:  Well, if Hillary wins tomorrow and then maybe they’re convinced until Donald Trump says it’s all rigged and contests the election.  I don’t have a great answer for you.  There’s no question that Donald Trump has taken media bashing to a new level, a disheartening level, in this cycle.  There are pictures of folks at their – folks at a Trump rally from today or yesterday wearing terrible t-shirts that sort of talk about taking it to the media, and I mean literally taking them out and hanging them on a tree kind of a thing.  
And so that’s part of the thing that is so depressing about this election cycle is the base level of conversation that we have had to have.  But I don’t think that – it’s not – it’s not anyone’s job to convince the voters that the polls are wrong or right.  
We’re going to see on Election Day and there’s going to be a lot of conversations about what those polls said and whether they were right or wrong. 

My U.S. election tour assignment: Brooklyn

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- First of all, I would like to thank U.S. Department of State Foreign Press Center Director Kathy Eagen for approving my participation in the New York Foreign Press Center (NYFPC) Tour to New York City Polling Locations during the U.S. Presidential Election on November 8, 2016.
Director Eagen asked me to choose between Samuels Community Center in Harlem in Bronx and Williamsburg Community Center in Brooklyn. 
I chose the latter.
Those approved to join the two NYFPC Tour with topic: "New York Presidential Election Polling Center Observation: Harlem and Brooklyn," will have the opportunity to observe the voting process.
We can also conduct interviews with polling officials and voters on a strictly voluntary basis, according to Eagen.

LETTERS

Journalists who carry authorization letters from the Board of Elections will be free to go to any polling center in New York.
On Monday, November 7 (U.S. time),  we will have "on-the-record briefing" on  "What to expect on election day in New York -- A Primer on Exit Polling and Calling the Race" with speaker Dr. Christina Greer of Fordham University in the morning.
In the afternoon, Jefrey Pollock, founding partner and president of Global Strategy Group, will speak on the State of the Race--The Liberal Perspective.
On Tuesday, November 8 (U.S. time), "On-the-record panel with Columbia and NYU professors: U.S. Foreign Policy in the Next Administration" will be tackled.
The speakers are: 
--David L. Phillips, senior adviser to the United Nation Secretariat, who also writes frequently on ISIS, Iraq, Syria and Turkey for cnbc.com. He is director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University's Institute for the Study of Human Rights;
--Kimberly Marten, a former Director of Columbia University’s Harriman Institute with expertise in Russian foreign policy; patronage; corruption; U.S-Russia relations; international security;
--Christopher Sabatini, who has worked on and in Cuba since 1997 and has been working with White House advisors on policy change toward Cuba since the start of the Obama administration.  He is the senior director of policy at the Americas Society and Council of the Americas (AS/COA);
--David Denoon, professor of Politics and Economics at New York University and Director of the NYU Center on U.S.-China Relations.  He has served in the Federal Government in three positions:  Program Economist for USAID in Jakarta, Vice President of the U.S. Export-Import Bank, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense.

STATE OF RACE

Also to be discussed is "On-the-record Briefing: The State of the Race-The Conservative Perspective" by speaker John McLaughlin, CEO and Partner of McLaughlin and Associates.
 On Wednesday, November 9 (U.S. time), "On-the-record Panel: Post-Election Day Perspectives at Baruch College" (to be hel at 5 Lexington Ave., Entrance on E. 25th St. between Lexington & 3rd Aves, NY, NY) will have the following speakers:
--David Birdsell, dean of the Marxe School of Public and International Affairs (all election topics);
--Mitchel B. Wallerstein, president of Baruch College, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Counterproliferation Policy and Senior Defense Representative for Trade Security Policy from 1993-1997;
--Thomas Main, professor whose current research is on the alt-right and is an expert on urban issues/cities; and
--Carla Robbins, clinical professor, adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, specialist in national security and diplomacy.

CNN: The final get-out-the-vote flurry begins

Washington (CNN) -- On the ground, on the air, and on the stump -- it is now all about getting out the vote.
For both parties, the last 96 hours before Election Day is the time to put months, even years-long plans to turn out voters in motion.
In 2016, Republicans are trying to learn from their mistakes. After their lagging 2012 operation failed to elect Mitt Romney, the Republican National Committee began working to step up their game, investing manpower and resources in many key states some three years ago.
"We are 100 miles away from where we were in 2012," said Matt Dailer, the RNC's director in the battleground state of Iowa.
One of the biggest differences between this election cycle and those in the past is that Republican activists and volunteers are working on a new phone app to get out the vote.
"It will show you their party affiliation, how reliable they are as a voter. You just click that voter, do tech survey, boom there you go right there," said Dailer, as he demonstrated the way it works.
It also gives volunteers what's called "dynamic scripting," a tool that prompts different pitches to voters depending on their answers to a set of questions, information instantly sent back to RNC headquarters.
"If we have someone who says the country is going in the wrong direction but they plan on voting for Hillary Clinton, there we go," Dailer said. "Now we know how we can target them."
"We need to talk to low-propensity Republicans to make sure they know when the election is and figure out who they're going to support so we can drive them out," he added.
Now, in the final push, thousands of GOP staffers and volunteers are using that app in battleground states across the country. The RNC, which is leading Trump's ground operation, says it will complete 17 million door knocks by Election Day, up from the 11.5 million it did in 2012.
It's an ambitious plan, but it's been done before -- by the Democrats.
Republican strategists openly admit that they are trying to emulate the Obama ground machine that crushed the GOP for two presidential election cycles.
And this cycle, the Democrats are not slowing down. Armies of Democratic volunteers and activists are spread out over the same key states as Republicans.
Clinton campaign aides say they are expecting to have close to 1 million volunteer shifts in the final 96 hours alone.
In some ways, team Clinton is old school. Unlike the Republicans who do almost everything on an app, the Democrats still distribute call sheets and send volunteers out canvassing with paper and clipboards. All the information is then imputed and tallied at the end of each day.
Still, overall, the Clinton system is very high tech, using social and digital media to build on that vaunted Obama operation. Jessalyn Reid, the Clinton campaign's Virginia state digital director, explained that their technology is all about meeting voters where they are, which in 2016 is online.
"We've got apps and mobile websites and email and all of the stuff that we're going to bring together for a holistic direct voter contact program that really reaches people where they are and enables them to organize their communities and get out the vote both on and off line," she said.
For Team Clinton, getting out the vote is all about decentralizing the process and helping volunteers reach out to people in their own communities.
Democrats also stress the importance of getting their supporters to make a concrete voting plan. Reid demonstrated on her phone how voters can use text messages to nail down every detail, from their polling location to what kind of transportation they will take to what time of day they plan to go. And on Election Day, Reid said those voters will get a reminder straight to their phones telling them to go vote.
With just days until the election, Clinton officials say their volunteers are pretty much done trying to persuade voters to support the Democratic nominee; they are just focused on turnout.
"Right now, and through the final stretch of the campaign, we are talking to Hillary supporters -- so people that we know support Hillary," said Reid.
Republican officials say they are also focusing their phone efforts on turning out supporters, but say their technology makes it possible to continue trying to persuade soft voters door to door, even in the final days of the campaign.
Still, for both sides, on Election Day, all the phone calls, messaging, door knocking, has to translate to one thing: votes.

Invitation to attend Trump's 'victory party' at New York Hilton Midtown

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- I just received an invitation to attend the "Donald J. Trump Victory Party on Election Night in New York City" at 6:30 p.m. at the New York Hilton Midtown on November 8, 2016. 

In an email from the Foreign Press Center, I was told to secure a media credential for the event. 

Meaning that Trump is 100 percent sure of beating Hillary Clinton? Very interesting.

Latest poll results showed Trump and Clinton are neck and neck in the race to gain 270 electoral college votes.

Earlier, I got another invitation to attend the Washington Press Center Election Day Tour-Visit to Virginia Polling Place in Alexandria, Virginia also on November 8, 2016 from 9:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m.

According to the information provided in the invitation, "Virginia was a critical swing state during the 2008 and 2012 presidential election cycles and has remained a player in 2016 in both the Presidential election as well as down-ticket races."

 ISSUES

Several issues contribute to this status, added the information.

Among them are Virginia's complex geographic, economic and social diversity, "not to mention that Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Tim Kaine hails from the Old Dominion."

The information said, "these factors will likely influence the outcome of Virginia's election results as voters head to the polls on November 8."

Participants in the tour will receive an overview of the mechanics of voting in Virginia, "they and they will have an opportunity to interview voters on sited," stated the information.

Among the topics during the briefing are: "The Disruption of American Politics", "Next Congress", "Latest Exit Polls", and "Foreign Policy and the Next Administration."

New polls show tight Clinton-Trump race nationally, battlegrounds

CNN reported October 31 that Hillary Clinton holds a slim lead over Donald Trump, a new national poll shows.
An ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll released Sunday showed Clinton ahead 46% to 45% -- narrower than Saturday's 2-point Clinton edge.
In CNN's Poll of Polls, which averages results for the five most recently released national surveys, Clinton has a 47% to 42% advantage over Trump. That's unchanged from the most recent Poll of Polls on Saturday.

REVEL

At-risk Republicans revel in FBI's Clinton email announcement
The ABC/Washington Post poll found that more than 6 in 10 voters say the news that the FBI is investigating newly discovered emails that could be related to Hillary Clinton's private server will make no difference in their vote, while 3 in 10 say it makes them less likely to back Clinton.
Sunday morning also brought a new set of battleground state polls.
In North Carolina -- a must-win state for Trump -- an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist University poll found Clinton ahead, 47% to Trump's 41%. The same poll found Clinton ahead 48% to 43% in early October.
In Florida, an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist University survey shows a dead heat -- with Clinton at 45% and Trump at 44%, a one-point drop for Clinton since the same poll's last results in early October, when Clinton led 46% to 44%.
Meanwhile, a New York Times Upshot/Siena poll found Trump ahead -- 46% to 42% -- in Florida. The same poll had found the candidates even at 43% apiece in September.
Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly reflected The New York Times/Siena poll results in Florida.

How AP rates the presidential race and the Road to 270

Hillary Clinton appears to have expanded her likely electoral college advantage amid strong early vote numbers in key states and national polling that, while tightening, consistently shows her leading Republican rival Donald Trump.

The Associated Press this week moves Nevada, where most recent polls show Clinton leading and early vote numbers appear to be in her favor, to leaning Democratic.

AP also moves Iowa from leaning Republican to tossup after a recent Quinnipiac University poll there showed a tied race.

The analysis is of the map as it stands today. It considers preference polling, recent electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel and on-the-ground staff.

If Clinton is able to hold on to her current battleground leads, she would win the White House even if Trump sweeps the remaining tossup states.
___

SOLID DEMOCRATIC: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington state (213 total electoral votes).

LEANS DEMOCRATIC: Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (65 total electoral votes).

TOSS-UP: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Maine 2nd District, Nebraska 2nd District, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah (87 total electoral votes).

LEANS REPUBLICAN: Alaska, Georgia, Missouri, Texas (67 total electoral votes).

SOLID REPUBLICAN: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming (106 total electoral votes).
___

Follow AP Polling Editor Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/EL_Swan

___

Want to chart your own path along the Road to 270? Figure out how Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton can get the Electoral College votes they'll need to win the White House with AP's interactive map: http://elections.ap.org/content/road-270-0. By EMILY SWANSON

'First homosexual American president'

"The rights of homosexual people are human rights, and human rights are for everyone." -- Ricky Martin

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- On November 8, 2016, the Americans will make history: either they will elect their first woman president, or they will elect the first president virtually unknown in geopolitics and who came from the reality TV.
The United States will crown either Hillary Clinton (Democratic Party) or Donald J. Trump (Republican Party) as the 45th president.
But it was on March 4, 1857 when the U.S. may have sent to the White House its first "homosexual" president.
The Fascinating Book of History tells us that before he became U.S. president, the unmarried James Buchanan (Democratic Party) "enjoyed a long, close association with his housemate, William R. King--and so close that unconfirmed speculation about the pair still swirls after more than 150 years."
Was Buchanan--the nation's only bachelor chief executive--also its first homosexual president?
The year 1834 was a momentous one for 42-year-old Buchanan. Already a veteran political leaderand diplomat, Buchanan won a seat in the U.S. Senate and formed a friendship with the man who would be his dearest companion for the next two decades.

INSEPARABLE

Buchanan and his chum, William Rufus de Vane King, a U.S. senator from Alabama, became virtually inseparable.
They reportedly shared quarters in Washington D.C., for 15 years. Capitol wits referred to the partners--who attended social events together--as "the Siamese twins."
Buchanan's bond with Senator King was reportedly so close that the future president described it as a "communion." In praising his friend as "among the best, purest, and most consistent public men I have ever known," Buchanan added that King was a "very gay, elegant-looking fellow."
The adjective "gay," however, didn't mean "homosexual" back then. It commonly meant "merry."
It's also useful to understand that it was not unusual for educated men to wax rhapsodic about other men during the 19th century. Admiring rather than sexual, this sort of language signified shared values and deep respect.
Historians rightly point out a lack of evidence that either of the bachelors found men sexually attractive. They note that when Buchanan was younger, he asked a Pennsylvania heiress to marry him. (She reportedly broke off the engagement.) Later, he was known to flirt with fashionable women.

CASUAL

Whatever the nature of his friendship with Buchanan, King reportedly seemed to consider it something more than casual. After the Alabaman became U.S. minister to France in 1844, he wrote home from Paris, expressing his worry that Buchanan would "procure an associate who will cause you to feel no regret at our separation."
Buchanan reportedly did not find such replacement, but it was apparently not for want of trying. He wrote to another friend of his attempts to ease the loneliness caused by King's absence: "I have gone a wooing to several gentlemen, but have not succeeded with any one of them..."
Sometimes the pair reportedly drew derisive jibes from their peers. The jokes often targeted King, a bit of a dandy with a fondness for silk scarves.
In a private letter, Tennessee congressman Aaron V. Brown used the pronoun "she" to refer to the senator, and called him Buchanan's "wife." President Andrew Jackson mocked King as "Miss Nancy" and "Aunt Fancy." 
Despite the childish jokes, both Buchanan and King advanced to ever-more-important federal posts. President James K. Polk selected Buchanan as his secretary of state in 1845. King won the office of U.S. vice president (running on a ticket with Franklin Pierce) in 1852. Voters selected Buchanan to the White House four years later.

ILL

Unfortunately, either of the friends reportedly distinguished himself in the highest office he reached. King fell ill and died less than a month after taking the oath as vice president.
Erupting conflicts over slavery and states' right reportedly marred Buchanan's single term in the Oval Office. Historians give him failing marks for his lack of leadership as the Civil War loomed. 
The pro-slavery chief executive (he was a Pennsylvania Democrat) reportedly opposed secession of the Southern states but argued that the federal government had no authority to use force to stop it.
As a result, Buchanan reportedly made no efforts to save the Union, leaving that task to his successor, Abraham Lincoln. 
Would Buchanan have risen to the highest office in the land if his peers honestly believed he was homosexual? It's hard to say. 
Today's perception is that 19th-century Americans were more homophobic than their 21st-century descendants.  Yet in an era when sexuality stayed tucked beneath Victorian wraps, there was a reportedly de facto "don't ask, don't tell" policy for virtually any profession.
Whatever their private proclivities, Buchanan and King clearly excelled in their private lives--at least until Buchanan got into the White House.
Based on what little evidence history provides, either man's sexual orientation had much, if any, bearing on what he accomplished, or failed to accomplish, in his career.

Opinions: Clinton rips Trump in first debate

"I love argument, I love debate. I don't expect anyone just to sit there and agree with me, that's not their job." -- Margaret Thatcher

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- Fil-Am voter Delia Gatmaitan of Queens did not cook dinner and "we decided to eat what was left in the refrigerator so we won't miss the debate" last night (September 26) between presidential nominees Hillary Clinton of Democratic Party  and Donald Trump of Republican Party.
Gatmaitan, 66, and live-in partner, Raul, 28, a Hispanic immigrant, both Clinton supporters, have been waiting the first presidential debate since August. 
Their housemate, another Fil-Am voter, Darcito Bartolome, 70, a Trump supporter, was also glued to his TV set monitoring the event at the Hofstra University in Hempstead on NBC channel, one of the networks that broadcast the "live" debate.
Like many partisan observers, they were divided on who won the first of the series of debates.

CIVILITY

According to Ruth Ben-Ghiat, professor of history and Italian studies at New York University, "Civility went south fast in Monday's debate."
She said, "Donald Trump lost his composure early, ranting, interrupting (over 20 times) and sniffing. (Under the weather, or out of his comfort zone?) Hillary Clinton started out soft, playing the grandmother card, but quickly escalated to tough talk and occasional sarcasm. It could hardly have gone otherwise. Clinton hit hard at Trump, bringing up his admiration of Russian President Vladimir Putin, his 'long record of engaging in racist behavior,' his denial at having supported the Iraq war, and his refusal to allow the American people to see his tax returns."
A specialist in 20th-century European history, Ben-Ghiat added: "In doing so, Clinton did Americans a big favor: she revealed Trump's limitations. He is simply unable to make those leaps of imagination and generosity necessary to transform from a businessperson to a national political leader." 

SMALLNESS

She stressed further: "The candidate who claims to do everything big showed the smallness of his thinking tonight. With his off-key rejoinders, he demonstrated repeatedly how he sees everything -- people, properties, cities, and entire countries -- in terms of how they factor into his business and personal universe, which seem to be one and the same. I'll get to Pennsylvania Avenue one way or another, he said tonight, as though the White House and his new Trump hotel are entities of equal importance. Perhaps they really are, in his mind."
"Clinton alone demonstrated the composure, wisdom, and broad vision necessary for executive office. She won the debate hands down," she explained.
Activist and television commentator Sally Kohn said "Trump's train went off the rails."

TRAIN

Donald Trump's supporters like to refer to his movement as "The Trump Train." Well, tonight The Trump Train went off the rails. Big time, Kohn pointed out.
"Admittedly, to many observers, the train was already way off track. Maybe it started the moment his campaign began, when he dismissed Mexican immigrants as 'rapists.' Or maybe it was when he attacked Sen. John McCain. Or later, when he attacked a Gold Star family. Certainly, many Americans have paid attention to the media's attempts at fact checking -- including one report that Trump only tells the truth 22% of the time, and another that found in five hours of talking, Trump outright lied an average of every 3 minutes and 15 seconds," she observed.
Kohn added: "But for those who somehow thought, up until Monday night, that Donald Trump might somehow be qualified to be president, Monday's debate was a wake-up call. He seemed like a defensive, petulant bully who could only insult Hillary Clinton and America -- and couldn't offer a single solution, let alone details. He came across as not only dreadfully unprepared for the debate, but dreadfully unprepared to be president. Which is the truth. And it's high time all Americans know it.

BIASED

"But don't believe me. I'm obviously biased. Believe Frank Luntz. In his live focus group of undecided and leaning voters, just six people thought Trump won while 16 said Clinton was the victor. In moment after moment, the focus group preferred Clinton. For instance, Clinton's response to Trump's attack on her stamina scored better than Trump's attack. And Hillary's plan to defeat ISIS actually scored better with the Trump leaners in the group than with the Clinton leaners.
"In moment after moment, Hillary Clinton presented a knowledgeable and clear-eyed vision for how to help working families and continue America on the path to security and prosperity. Donald Trump, in contrast, lied, and got defensive. He was petty and insulting, and then lied some more. Lies apparently can only get the Trump train so far. Eventually it runs out of steam.
"Hillary Clinton showed herself to be the kind of person you want in the White House. And Donald Trump showed himself to be the kind of kindergartner who should have his train taken away and instead given a timeout."

Women issues hound Duterte, Trump but who cares?

"The greater the controversy, the more you need manners." Judith Martin

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- It's not only Rodrigo Duterte of the PDP-Laban who is under hot seat for his rape jokes, among other political gaffes in the campaign period for the Philippines' May 9 elections.
The United States' Republican Party front-runner Donald Trump also has his own share of infamy among the American electorate because of his unconventional style and thunderous diatribes against his opponents.
Duterte's "kissing scenes" with female fans also became the objects of derision from critics and rivals in the presidential race.
Much of the contempt heaped on his character was due to his penchant to lash at enemies and criminals using expletives and nasty words without letup.
Duterte's followers insisted it is part of his style as a leader and "reformer"; and the mayor from Mindanao feels no remorse when goaded to apologize for his "misplaced machismo."

WOMEN

Trump has been tormenting some women, including several female journalists, activists, and illegal aliens, who are mostly Latinos, with acerbic and no-holds-barred onslaughts.
He is unperturbed even if Mexico has threatened to ban him for life for his threat to erect a wall in the US-Mexico boundary if elected.
The billionaire celebrity doesn't have plans to change his style as long as he continued to attract gargantuan attention from voting public. 
With 991 (as of this writing) out of the needed 1,237 pledged delegates, Trump is expected to collect the party's official nomination before the June GOP convention, and is already revving up for a possible shootout with Democratic Party official nominee-in-waiting Hillary Clinton (2,168 out of 2,383 pledged delegates as of writing) in the November general election.

SURVEYS

Like the 70-year-old Duterte, 69-year-old Trump is also leading in the surveys--but only in the Republican Party.
Clinton, who is expected to put away Bernie Sanders (1,401 pledged delegates as of this writing) after two or three more primaries and caucuses, is still ahead in the surveys in a one-on-one showdown against Trump or any other GOP candidate.
Big names in political, showbiz, business and media industries have expressed displeasure on how both Duterte and Trump behaved during their respective campaigns, but the clock and mathematics have continued to tick on their favor.
With more than a week remaining before the May 9 elections, surveys still favor the mayor of Davao City, which earned notoriety for it's death squad that disposed of criminals via extra-judicial process.

ADMINISTRATION

But even if he is "comfortably" ahead in the SWS and Pulse Asia surveys, administration candidate, Liberal Party's Mar Roxas, has vowed to outhustle him during election day, which the 58-year-old pride of Capiz and grandson of former President Manuel Roxas, called as "the real survey."
Roxas' LP accounts for more governors and mayors all over the country, while Duterte boasts of the OFWs, soldiers, cops, low income earners, students, seniors as among his supporters. 
Their rivals, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Grace Poe, and Jejomar Binay, have also vowed to win the elections and introduce "change and reforms" in the Philippines.
Trump, on the other hand, will have to put exclamation point first on his rivalry with fellow GOP candidate, Ted Cruz (568 pledged delegates as of press time), before securing a face-off with Clinton.

How to win an election: Tips from Cicero's brod

"The basic tool for the manipulation of reality is the manipulation of words. If you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use the words."  Philip K. Dick

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- With election days fast approaching in the Philippines in May and the United States in November this year, we are lucky to have Harvard University's Dr. Philip Freeman, who translated the text of the Commentariolum Petitionis from Latin to English and included it in the amazing book, "How To Win An Election", an ancient guide for modern politicians.
For US $3.98 (plus $.35 tax), I was lucky to secure a copy of the book from the Salvation Army in Queens recently. Its unit price was actually $9.95 excluding tax.
Commentariolum Petitionis ("little handbook on electioneering"), also known as De petitione consulatus ("on running for the Consulship"), is an essay supposedly written by Quintus Tullius Cicero, 65-64 BC, as a guide for his brother, Marcus Tullius Cicero, in his campaign in 64 to be elected consul of the Roman Republic.
"I have tried to make my translation accessible, colloquial, and as clear as possible to modern readers, while remaining faithful to the sense of the original text," writes Freeman, who holds the Qualley Chair of Classical Languages at Luther College in Decorah, Iowa.

IDEALIST

The book tells us that in 64 BC, when idealist Marcus Cicero, Rome's greatest orator, ran for consul (the highest office in the Republic), his practical brother Quintus decided he needed some no-nonsense advice on running a successful campaign.
"What follows in his short letter are timeless bits of political wisdom, from the importance of promising everything to everybody and reminding voters about the sexual scandals of your opponents to being a chameleon, putting on a good show for the masses, and constantly surrounding yourself with rabid supporters," explains Freeman.
Freeman describes it as "unashamedly pragmatic primer on the humble art of personal politicking is dead-on (Cicero wins)--and as relevant today as when it was written."
Like Machiavelli's Prince, this short treatise provides timeless and no-nonsense counsel to those who aspire to power. 
Idealism and naivete are left by the wayside as Quintus tells his brother--and all of us--how the down-and-dirty business of successful campaigning really works.

PRICELESS

Freeman says the letter is full of priceless advice for modern candidates, but some of the choicest gems are:
1. Make sure you have the backing of your family and friends. Loyalty begins at home. If your spouse and children aren't behind you, not only will you have a hard time winning but it will look bad to voters. And as Quintus warns Marcus, the most destructive rumors about a candidate begin among closest to him. 

2. Surround yourself with the right people. Build a talented staff you can trust. You can't be everywhere at once, so find those who will represent you as if they were trying to be elected themselves.

3. Call in all favors. It's time to gently (or not so gently) remind everyone you have ever helped that they owe you. If someone isn't under obligation to you, let them know that their support now will put you in their debt in the future. And as an elected official, you will be well placed to help them in their time of need.

4. Build a wide base of support. For Marcus Cicero this meant appealing primarily to the traditional power brokers both in the Roman Senate and the wealthy business community--no easy task since groups were often at odds with each other. 
But Quintus urges his brother as an outsider in the political game to go further and win over the various special interest groups, local organizations, and rural populations ignored by other candidates. Young voters should be courted as well, along with anyone else who might be of use. 
As Quintus notes, even people no decent person would associate with in normal life should become the closest of friends during a campaign if they can help get you elected. 
Restricting yourself to a narrow base of support guarantees failure.

5. Promise everything to everybody. Except in the most extreme cases, candidates should say whatever the particular crowd of the day wants to hear. Tell traditionalists you have consistently supported conservative values. Tell progressives you have always been on their side. After the election you can explain to everyone that you would love to help them, but unfortunately circumstances beyond your control have intervened. Quintus assures his brother that voters will be much angrier if he refuses to promise them their hearts' desire than he backs out later.

6. Communication skills are key. In ancient Rome the art of public speaking was studied diligently by all men who aspired to political careers. In spite of the new and varied forms of media today, a poor communicator is still unlikely to win an election. 

7. Don't leave town. In Marcus Cicero's day this meant sticking close to Rome. For modern politicians it means being on the ground pressing the flesh wherever the key voters are at a particular moment. There is no such thing as a day off for a serious candidate. You can take a vacation after you win.

8. Know the weakness of your opponents--and exploit them. Just as Quintus takes a hard look at those running against his brother, all candidates should do an honest inventory of both the vulnerabilities and strengths of their rivals. 
Winning candidates do their best to distract voters from any positive aspects of their opponents possess by emphasizing the negatives. 
Rumors of corruption are prime fodder. Sex scandals are even better.

9. Flatter voters shamelessly. Marcus Cicero was always courteous, but he could be formal and distant. Quintus warns him that he needs to warm up to voters. Look them in the eye, pat them on the back, and tell them they matter. Make voters believe you genuinely care about them.

10. Give people hope. Even the most cynical voters want to believe in someone. Give the people a sense that you can make their world better and they will become your most devoted followers--at least until after the election, when you will inevitably let them down. But by then it won't matter because you will have already won.

Possible bedfellows: Roxas-Clinton, Duterte-Trump, Poe or Binay-Clinton

"Perfect partners don't exist. Perfect conditions exist for a limited time in which partnerships express themselves best."  
Wayne Rooney

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- There should be no more false hopes for supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders as the number of Democratic open primaries is getting smaller, with Sec. Hillary Clinton must now win only 33 percent of remaining delegates to hit the 2,383 magic number as of April 6.
In order to oust Clinton, Sanders must win 67 percent of the remaining delegates. 
Clinton now has 1,728 against Sanders' 1,058 (this is the latest count even after Sanders clobbered Clinton in Wisconsin, 57 percent-43 percent).
With the next primary heading to New York (April 19), Clinton's home state, the prospect has become dimmer for Sanders.
Assuming that Clinton clinches the Democratic presidential slot, pollsters have predicted she could put away either Donald Trump (753 delegates) or Ted Cruz (514) of Republican party in the November general election.

SUPPORT

With full support from President Noynoy Aquino, Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party could pull the rug from under PDP Laban's Rodrigo Duterte, Nationalist People's Coalition's Grace Poe, and United Nationalist Alliance's Jejomar Binay.
Because of health problems, Miriam Defensor-Santiago has fallen by the wayside and isn't anymore expected to put up a good fight with barely five weeks to go.
Assuming that Roxas will win on May 9, 2016 and Clinton becomes president after the November 8, 2016 general election, they can work together harmoniously as both the Liberal and Democratic parties almost share the same political ideology and philosophy.
Although LP distances itself from the political extremes on the left and right, it can tune in with the Democrat's modern liberalism.

LANDSCAPE

If Duterte will make it and Trump will upset Clinton, the political landscape will change drastically as both gentlemen are known tough guys determined to wield iron hands to govern their nations.
Duterte has vowed to wipe out criminal elements and feed them to the fishes in the Manila Bay, while Trump has promised to build a wall to prevent Hispanic illegals from crossing the US-Mexico border; round up and yank out overstaying aliens.
Duterte's PDP Laban democratic centrist socialism
and consultative and participative democracy principles will have to sit well with Trump's Republican American conservatism.

SMOOTH

Poe's NPC can work smoothly with the Republican as it is also a conservative party.
Since it is in the right wing, Binay's UNA can engage in a romance with both the Democrat and Republican parties as it also embraces the ideology of conservatism, Filipino nationalism, social conservatism, and populism.
This means that a Binay victory in the Philippines and a Clinton or Trump victory in the United States can't be a case of a round hole in a square peg.

We can learn from US election

"The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything." Joseph Stalin

By Alex P. Vidal

NEW YORK CITY -- Six months after the Philippines will hold a presidential election on May 9, 2016, the United States will also hold their own presidential election on November 8, 2016.
The US election has always been our model since time immemorial.
It’s not difficult to admire the electoral system of the United States when we are used to witnessing the decrepit system in the Philippines, where the results are usually known after more than a week or even two weeks after the election.
In the United States, the losers deliver concession speeches gracefully the night of election day, and winners deliver their victory speeches magnanimously thereafter.
When Americans wake up the next morning, they already have inkling about their newly elected officials even before they eat breakfast. 

FRAUD

In the Philippines, concession and victory speeches come only if winners are not accused by their losing rivals of committing electoral fraud. 
When losing bets cry “we wuz robbed” it will take months or even years before the winners are declared officially by the Commission on Elections (Comelec). 
In many cases, the winners get to occupy their elected seats only days before the next election; sometimes they never have a chance to take their oath of office as they are embroiled in a protracted legal skirmish.
Filipino politicians lose because either they are “victims of fraud” or they suffer from “shortage of campaign funds.”  
Whether there is semblance of truth in the aforementioned allegations, losers in the Philippine elections almost always have alibis to offer; they never ran out of excuses.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

In the US presidential race, results are determined by the number of electoral votes from the Electoral College. Since the Electoral College is consist of 538 electors, a majority of 270 electoral votes is required to elect the president. 
Under the system, a candidate who wins the popular votes can not clinch the presidency. 
If the presidential standard bearer in one political party wins, his vice president also wins automatically. 
Because of the two-party system (Democrat and Republican), results are fast and accurate.
In the Philippines, five or more political parties can field their candidates from president down to the local level as long as they are accredited by the Comelec.
The logjam illustrates how chaotic is the tasks and responsibilities of the poll body in terms of regulating these political parties and disqualifying the so-called nuisance candidates who run as independents.

ABERRATION

The multi-party system is being viewed as an aberration in the Philippine electoral system where winners are picked based on popularity votes or the number of votes they can garner from different polling precincts nationwide.  
Some of these well-oiled political parties can also delay the proclamation of certain winners by filing annoying election protests meant to derail if not sabotage the assumption into office of winners.  
In some cases, winners are assassinated to prevent them from occupying their seats.
Beset by tribal and ideological differences, elections in the countryside in most cases are attended by violence and massive irregularities such as vote-buying, coercion, threats, intimidation giving credence to the infamous “guns, goons, and golds” terror tactic employed by influential and moneyed bets.
The electoral process in the United States can be considered as role model for other democratic countries that select their leaders through election worldwide.
By afternoon of the day after the November 6, 2012 election, reelected President Barack Obama was already back in White House to assume his second mandate. 
And life goes on for all Americans.

Filipinos can learn from US election

By Alex P. Vidal

LOS ANGELES, California -- It’s not difficult to admire the electoral system of the United States when you are used to witnessing the decrepit system in the Philippines, where the results are usually known after more than a week or even two weeks after the elections.

In the United States, the losers deliver concession speeches gracefully the night of election day, and winners deliver their victory speeches magnanimously thereafter.

When Americans wake up the next morning, they already have inkling about their newly elected officials even before they eat breakfast. 

In the Philippines, concession and victory speeches come only if winners are not accused by their losing rivals of committing electoral fraud. 
When losing bets cry “we wuz robbed” it will take months or even years before the winners are declared officially by the Commission on Elections (Comelec). 
In many cases, the winners get to occupy their elected seats only days before the next election; sometimes they never have a chance to take their oath of office as they are embroiled in a protracted legal skirmish.  

Filipino politicians lose because either they are “victims of fraud” or they suffer from “shortage of campaign funds.”  
Whether there is semblance of truth in the aforementioned allegations, losers in the Philippine elections almost always have alibis to offer; they never ran out of excuses.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

In the US presidential race, results are determined by the number of electoral votes from the Electoral College. Since the Electoral College is consist of 538 electors, a majority of 270 electoral votes is required to elect the president. 
Under the system, a candidate who wins the popular votes can not clinch the presidency. 
If the presidential standard bearer in one political party wins, his vice president also wins automatically. 
Because of the two-party system (Democrat and Republican), results are fast and accurate.

In the Philippines, five or more political parties can field their candidates from president down to the local level as long as they are accredited by the Comelec.

The logjam illustrates how chaotic is the tasks and responsibilities of the poll body in terms of regulating these political parties and disqualifying the so-called nuisance candidates who run as independents.

ABERRATION

The multi-party system is being viewed as an aberration in the Philippine electoral system where winners are picked based on popularity votes or the number of votes they can garner from different polling precincts nationwide.  

Some of these well-oiled political parties can also delay the proclamation of certain winners by filing annoying election protests meant to derail if not sabotage the assumption into office of winners.  
In some cases, winners are assassinated to prevent them from occupying their seats.

Beset by tribal and ideological differences, elections in the countryside in most cases are attended by violence and massive irregularities such as vote-buying, coercion, threats, intimidation giving credence to the infamous “guns, goons, and golds” terror tactic employed by influential and moneyed bets.

The electoral process in the United States can be considered as role model for other democratic countries that select their leaders through election worldwide.

By afternoon of the day after the November 6 election, reelected President Barack Obama was already back in White House to assume his second mandate. 
And life goes on for all Americans.